Stress-test your transition plan against the future

TCFD, IFRS S2 and ESRS E1 all want scenario analysis. Certigence lets you model your own scenarios with multi-year projections — so you can plan, disclose and act.

The scenarios your disclosure needs

  • Ambitious transition: Model an aggressive decarbonisation path and see the score impact year by year.
  • Moderate transition: Model a gradual improvement path with parameter ramp-up over time.
  • Business as usual: Project your current trajectory forward to see where no action leads.

Use case: Scenario modeling

  • 1-20 — Year projection horizon — Year-by-year ESG score paths
  • 4 — Parameter types per scenario — Percentage · absolute · growth rate · binary
  • Scored — Confidence level per projection — Data quality · distance · regression fit
  • Gap — And closure plan per target — Turn scenarios into action, not slides

Your parameters. Your trajectory. Your plan.

Project how planned changes — emissions cuts, energy mix shifts, workforce and governance improvements — move your ESG position over a 1-20 year horizon.

  • Percentage, absolute, growth-rate and binary parameters.
  • Gradual ramp-up modelling for phased initiatives.
  • Year-by-year projected scores per pillar.
  • Confidence level scored per projection.

Know your trajectory before you change it

Projections start from your real history — regression on your own data, not generic sector curves — so the baseline you stress-test is actually yours.

  • Baseline trend analysis from your reported data.
  • Regression fit quality (R²) shown per projection.
  • Data-quality assessment feeds the confidence score.
  • Projection uncertainty grows transparently with distance.

Set a target. See the gap. Close it.

Scenario projections become target paths. Compare actuals against your committed path and get flagged when you drift.

  • Custom reduction targets with milestones, owners and at-risk flags.
  • Actuals tracked against your target glide path.
  • Automatic on-track / at-risk / off-track status.
  • Alerts when a goal drifts to at-risk.

Turn scenario analysis into a running discipline

FAQ

Do you ship NGFS / IEA reference pathways?

Not today. Scenarios are built from your own parameters and history. If you work from a published pathway, model its assumptions as scenario parameters.

Can we build our own scenarios?

Yes — every scenario is your own: pick the parameters, the ramp-up and the horizon, and compare projections side by side.